Lotto Predictions - Uncovering The Truth

By Author: Darrel Dolph
Total Articles: 46
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Lottery predictions; Bah, humbug. That's what some people say. Others believe that using lottery number analysis to make lottery predictions is perfectly valid. It is a difficult matter for most lottery players to sort out. Who should you believe? Many players are simply left sitting on the fence without any clear path to follow. If you don't know where you stand, then, perhaps this article will help and give you a better picture of who to believe.

The Debate Over Making Lottery Predictions

The lottery prediction skeptics are convinced they have a good case. Their case goes something like this:

Predicting lottery numbers is a waste of time. Why analyze a lottery to make lottery predictions? It's a random game of chance. Any lottery number patterns or trends are a mirage. Everyone knows that each lottery number is equally likely to hit and, ultimately, all of the numbers will hit the same number of times.

Logic and Reason Is the Best Defense

At first, it sounds like the plaintiffs arguments are solid and based on a sound mathematical foundation. However, what you are about ...
... to discover is that the mathematics used to support their position is misunderstood and misapplied. I believe Alexander Pope said it best in 'An Essay on Criticism' in 1709: "A little learning is a dangerous thing; drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring: there shallow draughts intoxicate the brain, and drinking largely sobers us again." In other words, a little knowledge isn't worth much if that's all you have.

Let's discuss the misunderstanding first. In the field of probability, there is a theorem named the Law of Large Numbers. In general terms, it simply states that, as the number of samples or trials increase, the outcomes will approach the expected mean or average value. As for the lottery, this means that eventually all lottery numbers will hit the same number of times. By the way, I totally agree.

The first misunderstanding comes from the words, 'as the number of samples or trials increase'. Increase to what? Is 50 drawings enough? 100? 1,000? 50,000? The name itself, 'Law of Large Numbers', should give you a clue. The second misunderstanding centers aroung the use of the word 'approach'. If we are going to 'approach the expected mean', how close do we have to get before we are satisfied?

Second, let's discuss the the misapplication. Misunderstanding the theorem results in its misapplication. I'll show you what I mean by asking the qualifying questions that the skeptics forget to ask. How many drawings will it take before the results will approach the expected mean? And, what is the expected mean?

In an experiment often used to demonstrate the application of Law of Large Numbers, a two sided coin is flipped numerous times and the results, either Heads or Tails, are recorded. The purpose of the experiment is to prove that, in a fair game, the number of Heads and Tails, for all intents and purposes, will be equal. It typically requires a few thousand flips before the number of Heads and Tails are within a fraction of 1% of each other.

Lotto Statistics

With regards to the lottery, the skeptic proceeds to apply this theorem but never specifies what the expected value should be nor the number of drawings required. The effect of answering these questions is very telling. To demonstrate, let's look at some real numbers. For the purposes of this discussion, I'll use the TX654 lottery.

In the last 336 drawings,(3 years and 3 months) 2016 numbers have been drawn (6x336). Since there are 54 lottery numbers in the hopper, each number should be drawn about 37 times. This is the expected mean. Here is the point where the skeptic will need a couple of Motrin. After 336 drawings, the results are nowhere near the expected value of 37, let alone within a fraction of 1%. Some numbers are more than 40% higher than the expected mean and other numbers are more than 35% below the expected mean. What does this imply? Obviously, if we intend to apply the Law of Large Numbers to the lottery, we will have to have many more drawings; a lot more!!!

In the coin flip experiment, with only two possible outcomes, it takes a couple of thousand trials for the results to approach the expected mean. In Lotto Texas, there are 25,827,165 possible outcomes so, how many drawings do you think it will take before lottery numbers realistically approach their expected mean? Hmmm?

Lotto Number Patterns and Trends

This is where the argument against lottery number predictions falls apart. For example, if it takes 25,827,165 drawings before the expected values of all 54 lottery numbers are within a fraction of 1% of each other, it will take 248,338 years of lottery drawings to reach that point! Amazing! We're talking geological time frames here. Are you going to live that long?

The Law of Large Numbers is intended to be applied to a long term problem. Misapplying the theorem to a short term problem, proves nothing. Looking at the TX654 lottery statistics above shows that. It also demonstrates that lottery number patterns and trends exist. In fact, in our lifetime, they exist for all lotteries. Some lottery numbers hit 2 to 3 times more often than others and continue do so over many years of lottery drawings. Serious lottery players know this and use this knowledge to improve their play. Professional gamblers call this playing the odds.

Mathematically speaking, this isn't surprising. Because, for any random process in the short term, the outcomes can vary considerably from the expected value as shown in this Wikipedia link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

So it's not surprising that all lotteries are performing exactly as the Law of Large Numbers predicts they should. In the short term, many lottery number patterns. In the long term, all lottery numbers will approach their expected mean or average value. Where the skeptic goes wrong is trying to apply a theorem intended for long term analysis to a short term problem (our lifetime).

Here's the bottom line. The lottery number patterns and trends that you discover, whether by hand or using your lottery software, are not only valid, they are expected. So, study your lottery statistics and take advantage of those lottery number patterns and trends you discover. They are not going anywhere. They will be there for many, many years to come.
Professor Dolph is the famous Lottery expert, lecturer and columnist who developed LONA, your LOttery Number Advisor. Go to Picking Lottery Numbers for a unique look at Lottery software.