Annual Lng Shipping Market Review And Forecast

By Author: Bharat Book Bureau
Total Articles: 1486
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Bharatbook.com is proud to announce the new report Annual LNG Shipping Market Review and Forecast (http://www.bharatbook.com/detail.asp?id=4514).

LNG has been on the verge of becoming mainstream but events and circumstances have conspired to prevent it achieving its true potential. This may only be a matter of time while the industry waits for all the players - producers, shippers and importers - to coordinate their requirements. What does 2007 and beyond hold in store for this burgeoning sector?

The gas markets and LNG trade

The LNG fleet

LNG fleet employment and markets

LNG costs and economics

LNG outlook

In one of the most detailed studies on the LNG shipping sector available, the It LNG Shipping and Market Review 2007/08 examines the key factors determining business performance with detailed analyses and insights into how the future will play out.

Product Description

Executive summary:

2006 highlights

LNG trade

LNG fleet

LNG contracts and fleet employment

LNG costs

LNG outlook

LNG fleet:

Summary ...
... and development (1964-2006)

Size and age profiles

Deliveries, neworders, orderbook, demolition

Types of LNG carriers and the yards building them

Ownership of the LNG fleet

LNG outlook:

Gas demand

LNG supply and demand

Shipping demand

On the brink

It's report provides key insights into the LNG shipping industry and future trends in this important market. Its independent data and analyses are essential reading for planning business strategies and include:

Comparative analysis of LNG demand, growth and production worldwide.
The burgeoning issue of ‘green' energy and fuels and how liquefied gas, although fossil based, is seen as greener.
How producers have regained the upper hand in contract negotiating for future supplies pushing up prices. Plus how on the project side, a rise in material and equipment costs has combined with a shortage of experienced personnel pushing up costs overall.
Main findings

The It LNG Shipping Market Review and Forecast 2007/08 provides an independent assessment of the LNG sector - the big picture and the micro-detail. The strong growth since the turn of the century has meant expansion pains for more than a few companies.

LNG trade

It reports an average growth in LNG demand of 7.7% over the last decade with 2006 well above average at 11.8% to 211.1bcm.

The focus has certainly shifted of late away from SE Asia-Far East and North Africa-Europe areas to new supply sources in the Middle East, West Africa and Caribbean. Japan and South Korea have both recently been sourcing cargoes from Africa and Trinidad.

Following something of a slump, USA imports of LNG were restored to record levels during March and April of this year. Meantime, LNG demand remains strong in the booming markets with India and China receiving their first imports. Demand has also been amplified in more established markets eg. USA and UK, to replace declining domestic gas production or to reduce dependency on cross-border pipelines i.e. mainland Europe.

LNG fleet

The LNG fleet has been expanding rapidly since 2002 and will continue to do so until at least 2010. The LNG fleet saw record growth in 2006 with 27 new vessels delivered, expanding capacity by 16.6%. A further 14 deliveries in the first half of 2007 have added another 7.6% to capacity.

Orders for new vessels have slowed from the heady days of 2004 but nevertheless 2006 saw the third highest LNG orders on record with 34 ships contracted. A further 13 vessels were ordered in the first half of 2007.

South Korean yards continue to win the bulk of new orders and Qatari projects dominated LNG vessel-building in 2006 accounting for almost two-thirds of the orders placed - including the first order for Q-Max (> 260,000 cu.m). May 2007 saw the first vessel in more than a decade sold for scrap.

LNG outlook

Analysing liquefaction production under construction and planned, capacity could double by 2012 reaching 500 mtpa within a decade. Qatar is leading the expansion followed closely by Nigeria, Australia and possibly Iran and Russia.

Demand is forecast to grow by 7.6% per annum up to 2015 with the most significant levels coming from the USA. France, Italy, Spain and the UK will account for most of the European demand. China and India remain sizeable although volume forecasts have been scaled back.

In the short term, the LNG fleet will expand quicker than LNG trade owing to the planned vessel deliveries due over the next three years. Fleet owners will need to be increasingly creative to achieve maximum utilisation and will come under pressure to use ageing vessels for floating liquefaction, regasification or storage projects.

Employment

Despite record new deliveries, the increase in trade and the use of vessels as floating storage ensured the LNG fleet was well employed in 2006. The number of LNG carrier movements in 2006 was up by 3.6% over 2005 to more than 3000.

The short term market took 13.4% of the total LNG trade during 2006 in terms of volumes delivered. Attractive gas prices in Europe and Asia saw spot cargoes diverted away from the USA. Meanwhile, contracts for future LNG supply have seen producers gain the upper hand with prices on the up.

Table of Contents

1. Executive summary

2. The gas market and LNG trade
2.1 The gas markets
2.1.1 Natural gas
2.1.2 Liquefied natural gas (LNG)
2.1.3 Applications
2.2 World primary energy consumption
2.3 Natural gas consumption trends
2.4 Natural gas production trends
2.5 International natural gas reserves
2.6 The international natural gas trade
2.7 History of LNG
2.8 LNG exporters
2.9 Liquefaction plants
2.10 Regasification plants
2.11 LNG importing countries
2.12 LNG prices
2.13 Seaborne trade

3. The LNG fleet
3.1 LNG fleet profile and development
3.1.1 Development of the LNG fleet 1964-2007
3.1.2 Size profile of the LNG fleet
3.1.3 Age profile of the LNG fleet
3.1.4 Deliveries
3.1.5 New orders
3.1.6 Orderbook
3.1.7 Demolition
3.2 Types of LNG carrier
3.3 Yards building LNG carriers
3.4 Ownership of the LNG fleet

4. LNG fleet employment and markets
4.1 Contracts, existing, planned and potential
4.2 Short-term market
4.3 Vessel tracking analysis

5. LNG costs and economics
5.1 An introduction to ship costs
5.2 Capital costs
5.3 Operating costs
5.4 Voyage costs
5.5 Allocation of LNG shipping costs
5.6 LNG shipping revenues
5.7 Indicative fully built-up transportation costs
5.8 Transportation costs and overall project economics
5.9 Safety and security

LNG outlook
6.1 Gas demand
6.2 LNG supply and demand
6.3 Shipping demand

Appendices
1 Natural gas conversion factors
2 Natural gas consumption
3 Natural gas production
4 Natural gas reserves
5 Gas trade movements 2006 - by pipeline
6 LNG trade
7 LNG shipping
8a Current LNG receiving terminals
8b Planned and proposed LNG receiving terminals
9a LNG current contracts
9b LNG future contracts
10a LNG fleet - commercial details
10b LNG fleet - technical details
11 LNG orderbook - end May 2007
12 USA natural gas imports as LNG
13 LNG carrier design - 138,000 cu.m LNG carrier; membrane type
14 Tracking study
15 LNG charter fixtures
16 LNG vessels employed in the spot/short term market 2006

Tables
1.1 LNG fleet and orderbook
1.2 LNG trade
1.3 LNG imports and exports
1.4 LNG fleet development
1.5 LNG orderbook
1.6 LNG orderbook by shipyard
1.7 Recent LNG contracts
1.8 Market activity
1.9 Costs
1.10 LNG liquefaction capacity
1.11 Delivery schedule
1.12 Top 10 LNG exporters
1.13 Top 10 LNG importers
1.14 Top 10 owners - current fleet
1.15 Top 10 owners - orderbook
1.16 Top 10 yards - No. of LNG ships built
1.17 Top 10 yards - Orders since 2000
2.1 Composition and properties of natural gas
2.2 World primary energy and gas consumption
2.3 Forecast natural gas consumption
2.4 Natural gas production
2.5 International trade in natural gas, 1970-2006
2.6 World LNG trade by exporting countries
2.7 Planned Qatari LNG exports
2.8 LNG production capacity
2.9 LNG liquefaction plants: existing
2.10 LNG liquefaction plants: under construction
2.11 LNG liquefaction plants: planned and proposed
2.12 Existing regasification plants
2.13 Regasification plants under construction
2.14 Planned regasification plants
2.15 Speculative regasification plants
2.16 World LNG trade by importing countries
2.17 North American LNG terminals
2.18 Spanish LNG imports
2.19 Japanese LNG imports
2.20 Korean LNG imports
2.21 LNG prices
2.22 Gas prices
2.23 LNG seaborne trade 1990-2006
2.24 LNG trade matrix, 2005
2.25 LNG seaborne trade matrix
3.1 LNG fleet development
3.2 Breakdown of the LNG fleet by capacity
3.3 LNG fleet size and age profile
3.4 Shipyard summary
3.5 Delivery schedule of confirmed orders by yard, 2006-2010
3.6 Available yard slots, 2009-2011
3.7 LNG fleet ownership summary
4.1 Spot movements by importing region 2005 and 2006
4.2 Spot market by export country
4.3 Spot market by import country
4.4 LNG vessels loading, 2006
4.5 LNG vessels discharging, 2006
4.6 LNG carrier secondhand sales
4.7 Vessel available for employment 2007 onwards
5.1 LNG carrier newbuilding prices - 125-155,000 cu.m
5.2 Indicative operating costs, 2007
5.3 Operating cost projection for 145,000 cu.m newbuilding in US$
5.4 Operating cost projection for 210,000 cu.m newbuilding in US$
5.5 Historical and forecast bunker prices
5.6 Indicative annual voyage costs
5.7 Allocation of LNG shipping costs
5.8 LNG time charter rates
5.9 Indicative fully built-up transportation costs per annum
5.10 Indicative fully built-up transportation costs per annum
5.11 Indicative fully built-up transportation costs per annum by route - 145,000 cu.m vessel size
5.12 Indicative fully built-up transportation costs per annum by route - 210,000 cu.m vessel size
5.13 Indicative new LNG project costs
5.14 LNG carrier shipping incidents
6.1 LNG production capacity
6.2 LNG regasification capacity
6.3 New LNG capacity 2006-2012
6.4 Forecast LNG demand by country
6.5 LNG delivery schedule
6.6 LNG shipping requirement
6.7 LNG scrapping

Figures
1.1 LNG trade development
1.2 LNG fleet development
1.3 LNG exports
1.4 Japanese LNG imports
1.5 South Korean LNG imports
1.6 USA LNG imports
1.7 Spanish LNG imports
1.8 LNG prices
1.9 Forecast USA net gas imports
1.10 Deliveries & deletions
1.11 Orderbook
1.12 Age profile
1.13 LNG spot trades
1.14 LNG movements and LNG delivered
1.15 Newbuilding orders and price
1.16 Freight rates
1.17 LNG trade and fleet forecast
2.1 Natural gas and LNG demand, 1970-2006
2.2 Energy consumption by fuel type
2.3 Global distribution of gas reserves, 2006
2.4 Natural gas production, consumption and world trade
2.5 LNG exporters
2.6 LNG importers
2.7 USA LNG imports
2.8 LNG terminals: North America
2.9 LNG terminals: Europe
2.10 European LNG imports
2.11 LNG terminals: Japan and South Korea
2.12 South Korean LNG imports
2.13 LNG prices
2.14 LNG trade
2.15 Major LNG trade movements, 2006
2.16 World LNG exports, 2006
2.17 Shipping demand by exporting countries, 2006
2.18 World LNG imports, 2006
2.19 Shipping demand by importing countries, 2006
3.1 LNG fleet development
3.2 LNG fleet by size
3.3a LNG fleet age profile
3.3b LNG fleet age profile
3.4 LNG deliveries
3.5 LNG new orders
3.6 LNG orderbook - orderbook and orderbook as % of fleet
3.7 LNG orderbook - delivery schedule
3.8 LNG fleet by containment system
3.9 LNG fleet by place of build
3.10 LNG fleet by shipyard
3.11 LNG orderbook by shipyard
3.12 LNG fleet by owner
3.13 LNG orderbook by owner
4.1 Spot vs. contract, 2006
4.2 Spot movements
4.3 Growth of short term trade
4.4 Number of spot movements East and West, 2005 and 2006
4.5 Vessels undertaking multiple spot movements
4.6 Spot export movements, 2005 and 2006
4.7 Spot import movements, 2005 and 2006
4.8 LNG movements and LNG delivered
5.1 LNG carrier newbuilding prices: 125-155,000 cu.m
5.2 Operating costs
5.3 Bunker prices
6.1 Forecast energy demand by type
6.2 Forecast natural gas demand
6.3 Liquefaction capacity
6.4 LNG demand
6.5 Net US imports of natural gas
6.6 USA LNG import scenarios
6.7 LNG trade
6.8 LNG fleet development

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