The 2012 Kentucky Derby Winner May Be Determined Before Post Time

By Author: Lee Lane-Edgar
Total Articles: 365
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Second favorite Union Rags put away favored Stat at the top of the stretch and drew away to an emphatic 7 ¼-length victory in the Grade 2, $150,000 Three Chimneys Saratoga Special for 2-year-olds at Saratoga Race Course. He drifted out in the stretch even as he drew away showing that he has a lot of maturing to do before the 2012 Kentucky Derby, but luckily he has plenty of time. The winning time was 1:18.33 run over a sloppy track.
It is difficult to know how much the off-going helped him or if he is really just that good. If come post time for the 2012 Kentucky Derby, it is a sloppy track, he certainly will have an advantage of liking sloppy surfaces. The Saratoga Special was only a 6 ½ furlong race, and of course the 2012 Kentucky Derby is a full 3 ½ furlongs longer, but it is a good sign that he was pulling away rather than coming back to the field.
Some other promising two year olds are Drill and Majestic City and Creative Cause, the first three horses to cross the line in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity which was run on September 7th. The finish involved a scramble to the wire with no more than a length ...
... and a half covering the first five finishers, and Drill prevailed over Majestic City by only a head, though Majestic City was ultimately disqualified and placed third, and Creative Cause was moved up to second. It is difficult, therefore, to ascertain just how good they were but the Beyer Speed Figure for the winner was a solid 90, but all three seemed to be finishing strongly.
The winner Drill is out of the Grade 1 Stakes winner Lawyer Ron who had no trouble getting long distances given that he set a track record for 1 1/8 at Saratoga. Majestic City’s sire City Zip however, was known primarily as a sprinter who didn’t have much success past a mile, so he is certainly not bred for the distance of the Kentucky Derby. If I had to wager money, I would say Drill has the much better shot at being there for 2012 Kentucky Derby post time.
Creative Cause who crossed the wire third appeared to have plenty in the tank and might’ve easily gotten second had he not squeezed back near the wire, which caused him to lose some momentum. He is by the very prolific sire Giant’s Causeway who was a five time consecutive Group 1 winner in Europe, many of which were distances of the Kentucky Derby or longer. He certainly has the breeding to go long and is a hot prospect to watch for the 2012 Kentucky Derby.