Bringing Down The Bookie: Football Picks

By Author: pangsiyan
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In my new book, The House Advantage, I profile one of the brightest minds in professional sports gambling, Dr. Bob.

Bob and I have been friends for the last few years but of course both have a competitive side to us. So sitting around having lunch last month we thought it would be fun to do a Dr. Bob versus Jeff Ma Challenge for this football season.

Each week we are both going to pick five games against the spread. We'll publish the picks each Friday on Huffington Post. At the end of the season one of us will owe the other dinner and hopefully, we will have provided some entertaining content for you.

So without further ado, here are this week's picks.

[Dr. Bob's Analysis is edited. To see all his free analysis on every game this week, go to www.drbobsports.com]

Oklahoma State (-13.5) over Troy State

Oklahoma State's new offense (the "Air Raid" used at Texas Tech) was a huge success last week in their 65-17 win over Washington State, as the Cowboys racked up 310 yards at 7.6 yards per rushing play on the ground and 236 yards at 6.1 yppp. Troy State has a poor defense that I rate at 0.7 ...
... yards per play worse than average, so Oklahoma State should be able to run up the points again this week.

OHIO (-7 ½) over Toledo

I went against Toledo last week with a Strong Opinion on Arizona and it is pretty clear to me that my negative assessment of the Rockets was correct. Toledo was dominated in a 2-41 home loss, getting out-gained by the Wildcats 185 yards at 3.7 yppl to 520 yards at 7.6 yppl, and I was actually pretty puzzled by the line on this game. Toledo clearly isn't as good as last year's sub-par team and Ohio is better than they were a year ago.

Florida State (+7 ½) over OKLAHOMA

It's tough to explain how Oklahoma played last week in a narrow 31-24 win over Utah State. The Sooners were out played 5.4 yards per play to 5.6 yppl by a team that they were favored by 34 points against and that had better have been a case of looking ahead to this game or the Sooners are going to be in trouble. Most troubling is a secondary that allowed a previous below average passer (Utah State's Diondre Borel) to slice them apart for 318 net passing yards at 8.0 yards per pass play. Coming into town this week is one of the nation's best passing quarterbacks Christian Ponder, who averaged 7.3 yards per pass play last season despite facing teams that would allow just 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback.

CALIFORNIA (-9) over Colorado

Most prognosticators have labeled Cal as being a couple of points worse this season than they were last year, but I graded the Bears as significantly better this season due to an expected resurgence on the defensive side of the ball. The Bears did lose a couple of All-Pac 10 defenders (and NFL draft picks) in DL Tyson Alualu and CB Syd'Quan Thompson, but Cal had an uncharacteristically bad season on defense in 2009 (5.6 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team) and the Bears have good talent on the line (NFL prospect Cameron Jordan), at the linebacker position (All Pac-10 Mike Mohamed), and in the defensive backfield (they have 6 solid players for 4 spots). Prior to last season the Bears had been at least 0.6 yppl better than average defensively in 4 of the previous 5 seasons and head coach Jeff Tedford brought in aggressive defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast to take advantage of all of the speed and athleticism on that side of the ball. Last week that defense dominated UC Davis and held the Aggies to just 81 total yards at 1.8 yppl (UC Davis would average about 4.3 yppl on the road against an average Division 1A defense) and the Bears should have no trouble limiting a still bad Colorado offense that was 0.9 yppl worse than average last season.

PITTSBURGH (+2) over Atlanta

The odds makers knew that Ben Roethlisberger would be out for this game when they posted the opening line of pick, but the public seems they think they know more than the professionals on how much losing Big Ben will mean to the Steelers. The public always tends to overreact to the loss of a starting quarterback and Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS since Roethlisberger became the starting quarterback (in week 3 of his rookie season) in the games that he has missed (aside from the two week 17 games when the starters were held out, they were 1-1 ATS in those games).

Now on to my picks...

Carolina (+6) over NEW YORK GIANTS

Carolina was playing like an elite team at the end of last season and I think that momentum will carry into this season as they will be able to run the ball with their two stud running backs. Giants are still beat up on the offensive line and may have trouble both running and protecting Eli.

Detroit (+6.5) over CHICAGO

Turnover differential has a high correlation to winning and losing in football. But the problem is turnovers are very difficult to predict. That is unless you combine Jay Cutler with Mike Martz. I'll take the improving Lions getting points against a Bears team that will struggle this season.

Cleveland (+3) over TAMPA BAY

Cleveland was one of the hottest teams at the end of last season winning their last four and covering their last seven. Not sure what TB has done to make them favored in this game. Getting the better team with points.

HOUSTON (+2) over Indianapolis

Big time statement game for Houston. Certainly a game that has been on the Texans mind all off-season. This is the team they need to beat if they ever want to go to the playoffs. Like Schaub and the uncoverable Andre Johnson to put up some big points here and win this game in front of the home crowd.

KC (+4.5) over San Diego Chargers

I like getting points at Arrowhead against a SD team that starts slow and will have trouble at times on offense this season. KC had some competitive moments with SD last year but turned the ball over at crucial times. If they can limit those, they will keep this game close.