India Vision 2020 - Solar Is The Way To Go

By Author: aniketdicosta
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In the wake of growing concerns over global warming, the Indian government is all determined to generate 20,000 MW of solar power capacity by 2020. The plan currently being formulated, assures that solar power will be cost-efficient by 2020.

Currently, the cost of electricity generated from solar photovoltaics is around Rs 15/kwh while coal-based electricity costs a meager Rs 4/kwh. According to the experts, this cost gap will be covered, because in the future the price of solar power costs will drastically decrease from Rs 150/watt now to Rs 30/watt by 2020. And moreover, increase in demand for fossil fuels in future will only lead to increase in its costs.

In the new world order, both India, and China, are emerging as the economic powerhouse. So naturally, the demand for coal, oil and gas will be all time high in both these countries. According to a report, India's dependence on imported oil will be exceeding by 90 percent by 2030. The demand for coal will predictably will be billion tonnes by 2030. Moreover, much of the coal reserves fall in the protected forest areas, so mining in the areas is next to impossible. ...
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China has even larger demands-oil over 15 million barrels a day and coal demand of over 800 million tonnes- and so a massive price rise seems to be an inescapable reality. And God forbid, if a turmoil ensues in Gulf and in case green groups put a restrain on Australian coal supplies, then naturally the prices of fossil fuel-based electricity will shoot up and will cost more than Rs 4/kwh by 2020. So depending on fossil fuel does not seem to be a viable option for the future.

So, India's challenge is to put together an energy supply system that will be successfully tackle the price and supply shortfalls of fossil fuels that we in all probability will confront in the future.

The shortfall will trigger massive demand for non-fossil fuel energy technologies, all across the globe, not just in India and China. The opportunities can be likened to the boom in the Japanese car exports, which hit an all time high after the oil prices sky rocked in 1973. Japanese manufacturers had started manufacturing fuel-efficient cars, even when the prices were below $2 a barrel. Japan's huge dependence on oil imports and benefits of small car had inspired the Japanese manufacturers to launch fuel-efficient cars. So, when the oil crises hit, the Japanese were already ready with product which the world was increasingly looking forward. As a result, Japanese car exports spilled, rather doubled, between 1973 and 1977, and continued to rise till 1986. The story of solar technology can be somewhat similar.

If fossil fuel prices rise, the biggest gainers will be countries that are ready with alternate energy technologies. Our country's challenge is to put into place an effective eco-system that will facilitate innovation and investment in solar and other non-fossil fuel alternatives for a decade or so that when actually the price crunch surfaces, Indian Industryis ready for the opportunities that will open up. Moreover, even private players seem to be interested in entering this market, so it will give a major boost to the overall growth of this sector

However, public investment is also important especially in the domain of research. The areas which will need special focus are bringing down the costs of solar panels and films, developing cost-efficient thermal power, cutting cost on storage of energy to enhance the load factor, promoting the use of solar energy in low-intensity thermal applications etc.

But we need to prepare ourselves for the huge opportunities that lie ahead. Like, we need to commence projects that will be supplying 20,000 MW of solar power by 2020, a commitment from power distributors to buy some minimum quantity and various other measures that will help the country shrink the cost disadvantage.

All this needs to be done, given the fact the real challenge of alternate energy technologies, like wind and solar energy is not just reduction in unit costs but the challenge of integrating into the mainstream energy supply system.

Given the rising climate fears, these alternate energy sources like solar and wind energy will help countries and companies alike to live within carbon quotas limit and put away covert or overt carbon taxes.

So here is a big chance for India, not just to capture the world markets, but create a monolithical empire based on its know-how of solar technology.

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