The Stock Price Of Kweichow Moutai

By Author: Guchen EAC
Total Articles: 19
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When Maotai's stock price climbed from a few hundred yuan to a thousand yuan, and then broke the 2,000 yuan mark today, a century-old problem was formed: buy a house or buy Maotai? Which investment yields higher? The answer in many people's minds has tended to the latter. It can be compared with real estate, and it can be seen that Moutai, no matter its market price or share price, has been different from the past.

Perhaps affected by the performance forecasts of the previous few days, at the close of trading on January 5, Moutai's stock price closed at 2059.45 yuan per share, with a total market value of over 2.58 trillion yuan, a new high, and the full-year growth rate of 2020 will exceed 70%. According to the 2020 performance forecast released by Moutai, revenue and net profit have achieved 10% growth respectively. After the epidemic has enveloped the world for half a year, it is not easy for Moutai to achieve such performance. From the performance trend in 2020, high-end liquor led by Moutai will continue to be optimistic.

Stock price rises under performance blessing

According to the Moutai announcement, ...
... in 2020, it will produce 50,000 tons of Moutai base liquor and 25,000 tons of series base liquor; it is expected to achieve a total operating income of about 97.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 10%, and it is expected to be attributable to shareholders of listed companies The net profit of about 45.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 10%.

After the announcement of 2020 results, institutions have raised their target prices. Among them, Guotai Junan stated that Kweichow Moutai operated steadily throughout the year and its performance was in line with expectations. With the optimization of the channel system, the volume and price maintained healthy growth and continued the road of high-quality development. In addition, Essence Securities also believes that Moutai will lead the high-end in the 13th Five-Year Plan period, and both volume and price will rise, but the benign supply of channel inventory is less than demand. The approval price moat has deepened, and the ex-factory price will only be adjusted once, and the fundamentals will be stronger. There may be more new expectations.

In fact, before Moutai released its performance forecast, Moutai had already begun to warm up. At the Moutai 2020 National Distributor Meeting held a few days ago, Gao Weidong, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of Moutai Group, summarized the operation of Moutai in 2020.

"We have done a good job in the prevention and control of the epidemic, and answered the "satisfaction roll" of market work. We have achieved fruitful results in the brand, market, and capital market." Gao Weidong said, "In 2020, the Moutai market will be stable and better. , The market layout is more level, the marketing service is more warm, the reform and development is more effective, the "13th Five-Year" plan has been successfully completed, the results are worthy of recognition, and the drive is worthy of praise."

At present, the market's enthusiasm for Moutai is unabated. At the beginning of 2021, Moutai's stock price will rise above the 2,000 yuan mark. Although the stock price is already high in the cloud, brokerage analysts are still extremely optimistic.

Coupled with the blessing of Maotai's good performance, it also makes it proud in the capital market. Many institutions have also raised the target price of Kweichow Moutai stock, and CICC has even given a target price of 2739 yuan.

How much else can Moutai's share price increase in the future? In an interview with a reporter from China Times, Shen Meng, executive director of Chanson Capital, said that although the supervisory authorities have taken the form of an inquiry letter to remind market risks, if the fundamentals of other sectors do not improve significantly, the hedging function of concentrated funds in liquor stocks Will continue.

At the same time, some people in the industry believe that, as a high-end leader, the company has strong pricing power in the industry and is expected to continue to share China's high-end consumption expansion in the future. It is expected that the company's implied long-term price increase option will still be determined under the significant channel spread.

In their view, Moutai satisfies both scarcity and storage investment value. In their view, Maotai stock price and gold price trend have a certain correlation, in fact, behind it is caused by the over-issue of currency, Maotai is the "gold" in the stock market.

Good sales structure adjustment

In 2020, Kweichow Moutai was recognized as the "Infrastructure Year". Accompanying it, Kweichow Moutai also lowered its target at the beginning of the year and set the target for annual total revenue to increase by 10%, compared with the high growth since 2016 Has slowed down.

Under the influence of the epidemic last year, most industries stepped on the brakes, and many companies slowed down their performance growth. According to industry analysts, under the influence of the epidemic, Moutai can still achieve such results, which is related to its price control and adjustment of its sales structure in the past year. The most obvious is the continuous proportion of direct sales and self-operating. Promote.

The direct sales of Moutai has always attracted investors' attention. In the first half of this year, Kweichow Moutai's direct sales channel revenue accounted for more than 10% of revenue for the first time. From the perspective of the overall situation in the first three quarters and the third quarter, Moutai's direct sales still performed well.

According to the performance data of the three quarterly reports, according to the sales channels, the direct sales revenue of Moutai in the first three quarters was 8.433 billion yuan, and the wholesale revenue was 58.713 billion yuan. Moreover, it is understood that as of the end of October, Moutai has reached cooperation with 68 direct sales channel providers such as Tmall, Suning and JD.com.

With regard to increasing investment in direct sales channels, the official reason given by Moutai is that it can facilitate the flattening of its channels. But what the outside world understands is that by increasing the proportion of direct sales channels, Moutai's profits can be increased. Some direct-sale distributors have revealed that the ex-factory price of ordinary Feitian Moutai is 969 yuan, but the actual price to direct-sale distributors will be a little higher than 969 yuan.

At present, the supply price of Feitian Moutai to dealers is 969 yuan, and the official suggested retail price is 1499 yuan. At the retail end of the market, the price of Moutai is even more unattainable, up to 3,000 yuan, and has recently fallen back to 2,300-2,500 yuan per bottle.

In recent years, Moutai has been vigorously rectifying channels, reducing dealers and increasing direct sales channels. It meets the expectations of investors for the return of profits.

According to statistics, at the end of 2018, the number of domestic distributors was 2,987, and it was reduced to 2,377 in 2019. Excluding the increase in dealers, there was a net decrease of 610 during the period. After excluding the reduced 503 series of liquor dealers, the number of Moutai dealers also decreased by about 100.

However, in Shen Meng’s view, the rise in liquor stocks is due to the poor performance of other sectors and the formation of a hedging function of concentrated funds. Under the condition of stable supply of production capacity, the impact of changing the sales model on performance is limited, so the impact on stock prices Also limited.

I am Isabella S Johnna, Working at Guchen EAC. We are the top manufacturer of HVAC systems, including bus air conditioning, 12V air conditioner for van, electric AC compressor etc.Guchen EAC manufactures and exports a wide range of electric AC compressor, both high voltage (DC320V, DC350V, DC380V) and low volt compressors (DC12V, DC72V).